UCD 0-0 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as UCD face Shelbourne.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
UCD Bowl plays host to UCD versus Shelbourne in Premier Division (matchday 8). Kick-off: Friday 7 April 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
UCD have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, UCD have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Shelbourne's record over their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Shelbourne edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2022, ended UCD 1–1 Shelbourne — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
UCD goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 44% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 44% | Shelbourne 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.02 xG and Shelbourne 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.826 / defence 1.404 | Shelbourne attack 0.918 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.207. UCD's defence rating of 1.404 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shelbourne's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 43 games and Shelbourne's last 43.
Result probabilities: UCD 25% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 50%. Fair-value odds: UCD 4.08 | Draw 3.86 | Shelbourne 2.02. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: UCD 50% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 8 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 7 April 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 25% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG UCD 1.02 / Shelbourne 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.826 / def 1.404 | Shelbourne attack 0.918 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Shelbourne xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ UCD vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does UCD vs Shelbourne kick off?
UCD vs Shelbourne kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 7 April 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Shelbourne?
UCD 0 - 0 Shelbourne.
Where is UCD vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Shelbourne part of?
UCD vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 8) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 25% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both UCD and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will UCD vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
UCD's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.92x) against UCD's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from UCD's last 43 games and Shelbourne's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
25%
4.08
26%
3.86
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
UCD xG
Total xG
2.57
1.55
Shelbourne xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
5%
19.31
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ UCD vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are UCD and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for UCD and 1.55 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
UCD's recent record stands at 7W 8D 21L from 36 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 15L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for UCD against 1.14 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, UCD have managed 4W 4D 10L from their last 18 home games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 5W 5D 8L across their last 18 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
UCD are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
UCD (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
UCD
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ UCD vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are UCD and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 7W 8D 21L in their last 36 games (0.81 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.89 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 27 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shelbourne have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won UCD 0-4 Shelbourne on 7 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
3
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ UCD vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Shelbourne?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, UCD have won 0, Shelbourne have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2023: Shelbourne 3-2 UCD.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 50%, Shelbourne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (UCD) and 39% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: UCD have failed to score in 44% of games; Shelbourne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ UCD vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in UCD and Shelbourne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of UCD's recent matches and 50% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are UCD and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of UCD's recent games and 39% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of UCD's recent matches and 50% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at UCD's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 8, as UCD and Shelbourne drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 1.02 xG and Shelbourne 1.55 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. UCD fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shelbourne landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.83 / defence 1.40 against Shelbourne attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 25% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 50%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 44%, Shelbourne 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — UCD 0.81 PPG, Shelbourne 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. UCD (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.