UCD 1-5 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Dundalk (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as UCD face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to UCD Bowl to face UCD in Premier Division (matchday 36). The match kicks off on Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
UCD have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, UCD have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Dundalk (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Dundalk are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Dundalk, who have 4 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Jun 2023, ended UCD 1–4 Dundalk — a Dundalk win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Dundalk have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
UCD — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 42% versus Dundalk 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 54% | Dundalk 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: UCD surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Dundalk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.80 xG and Dundalk 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.594 / defence 1.602 | Dundalk attack 1.028 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 0.965. UCD's attack rating of 0.594 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. UCD's defence rating of 1.602 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dundalk's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 71 games and Dundalk's last 71.
Result probabilities: UCD 18% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 55%. Fair-value odds: UCD 5.61 | Draw 3.71 | Dundalk 1.81. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: UCD 40% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 36 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 18% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG UCD 0.80 / Dundalk 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.594 / def 1.602 | Dundalk attack 1.028 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.419 / away 0.965 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Dundalk xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ UCD vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does UCD vs Dundalk kick off?
UCD vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 3 November 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Dundalk?
UCD 1 - 5 Dundalk.
Where is UCD vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Dundalk part of?
UCD vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 36) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 18% chance of winning, Dundalk a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both UCD and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will UCD vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates UCD's attack at 0.59x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (1.03x) against UCD's defence (1.60x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from UCD's last 71 games and Dundalk's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
18%
5.61
27%
3.71
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
UCD xG
Total xG
2.39
1.59
Dundalk xG
5.61
18%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
4%
27.49
25%
4.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.6 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ UCD vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are UCD and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for UCD and 1.59 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
UCD's recent record stands at 9W 13D 49L from 71 games, a 0.56 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 33W 19D 19L across 71 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, UCD have managed 6W 7D 22L from their last 35 home games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 11W 9D 15L across their last 35 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
UCD are averaging 0.66 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.46 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Dundalk in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
UCD (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
UCD
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ UCD vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are UCD and Dundalk in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 9W 13D 49L in their last 71 games (0.56 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 33W 19D 19L in their last 71 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Dundalk away?
Dundalk's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.71 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.20 PPG.
Have UCD or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Dundalk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between UCD and Dundalk, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 3 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Dundalk have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dundalk won UCD 1-5 Dundalk on 3 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
UCD
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ UCD vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Dundalk?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, UCD have won 1, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2023: UCD 1-5 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 43%, Dundalk 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (UCD) and 37% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 31%; UCD have failed to score in 51% of games; Dundalk in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ UCD vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in UCD and Dundalk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of UCD's recent matches and 40% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are UCD and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of UCD's recent games and 37% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of UCD's recent matches and 60% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 1-5 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat UCD 1-5 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.80 xG and Dundalk 1.59 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 1.59 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.59 / defence 1.60 against Dundalk attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 18% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 55%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 54%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.56. That form edge translated into the three points. UCD (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.