St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford meet at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Waterford have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Waterford's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, St Patrick's Athl. have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with Waterford managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives St Patrick's Athl. a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Waterford — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 38% versus Waterford 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Waterford 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.90 xG and Waterford 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.127 / defence 0.712 | Waterford attack 0.991 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.254. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 St Patrick's Athl. games / 64 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 58% | Draw 28% | Waterford 14%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 | Draw 3.57 | Waterford 7.14. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Waterford 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 58% | Draw 28% | Waterford 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.90 / Waterford 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.127 / def 0.712 | Waterford attack 0.991 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Waterford xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 2 Waterford.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 58% chance of winning, Waterford a 14% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
Record (9 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 5W | Draws 3 | Waterford 1W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Waterford (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.13) and Waterford's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.99x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
58%
1.72
28%
3.56
14%
7.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.78
0.89
Waterford xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
7.21
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
2%
48.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.89 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 27W 21D 16L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 17W 17D 30L from 64 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.94 PPG from 32 outings (17W 11D 4L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 7W 7D 18L from 32 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.20 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 27W 21D 16L in their last 64 games (1.59 PPG), while Waterford have gone 17W 17D 30L in their last 64 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Waterford away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.94 PPG; Waterford away: 0.88 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Waterford in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Waterford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 38%, Waterford 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 53% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. have failed to score in 28% of games; Waterford in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 56% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 53% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Waterford in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.90 xG and Waterford 0.89 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Waterford outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.13 / defence 0.71 against Waterford attack 0.99 / defence 1.16, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 58% | Draw 28% | Waterford 14%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 38%, Waterford 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Waterford's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.