St Patrick's Athl. 7-0 UCD – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (83%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as St Patrick's Athl. face UCD.

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Fixture Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. welcome UCD to Richmond Park in Premier Division (matchday 22). Kick-off is Friday 30 June 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

St Patrick's Athl.'s home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, UCD stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

When travelling, UCD have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of St Patrick's Athl.: 6 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for UCD, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2023, ended St Patrick's Athl. 3–1 UCD — a St Patrick's Athl. win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both St Patrick's Athl. and goals — 6 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

UCD in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 47% versus UCD 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 55% | UCD 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.94 xG and UCD 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.261 / defence 0.799 | UCD attack 0.730 / defence 1.655. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.113. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack rating of 1.261 — their 2.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. UCD's defence rating of 1.655 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output up. UCD's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. St Patrick's Athl. have a tight defence (rating 0.799), which is pulling UCD's projected output down. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 59 games and UCD's last 57.

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 83% | Draw 11% | UCD 5%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.20 | Draw 9.00 | UCD 18.52. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (83%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 83% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.

The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 50% (last 10 home games) | UCD 40% (last 10 away games).

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