St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Dundalk travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 May 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dundalk away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Dundalk trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 51% versus Dundalk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 53% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.31 xG and Dundalk 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.125 / defence 0.785 | Dundalk attack 0.803 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.230. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 St Patrick's Athl. games / 53 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 22%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Dundalk 4.55. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Dundalk 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.31 / Dundalk 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.125 / def 0.785 | Dundalk attack 0.803 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Dundalk xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 49% chance of winning, Dundalk a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.12x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.49
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.08
0.78
Dundalk xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
6%
16.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.78 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 36W 15D 21L from 72 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 30W 21D 21L across 72 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71 PPG, Dundalk on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 22W 5D 9L from 36 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 9W 14D 13L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.31 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 15D 21L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Dundalk away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.97 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.14 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dundalk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Dundalk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 36% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Dundalk in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 50% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 36% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Dundalk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Dundalk 2-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.31 xG and Dundalk 0.78 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.12 / defence 0.79 against Dundalk attack 0.80 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 22%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 53%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG, Dundalk 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.