St Patrick's Athl. 3-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 April 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 3W 5D 2L at Richmond Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bohemians — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On current form, St Patrick's Athl. have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Bohemians 1, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 xG and Bohemians 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.245 / defence 0.747 | Bohemians attack 0.931 / defence 0.665. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.149. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.665 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 St Patrick's Athl. games / 48 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 23%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Bohemians 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 / Bohemians 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.245 / def 0.747 | Bohemians attack 0.931 / def 0.665 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Bohemians xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. 3 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 43% chance of winning, Bohemians a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
Record (8 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 5 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.25) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
43%
2.34
34%
2.93
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.97
0.80
Bohemians xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
7%
14.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.80 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 30W 21D 21L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.33 PPG from 72 outings (26W 18D 28L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.54 PPG, Bohemians on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 19W 10D 7L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.28 points per game from 36 outings (12W 10D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.21 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Bohemians away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.86 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.28 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bohemians in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
5
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Bohemians have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Bohemians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 47% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Bohemians 3-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 xG and Bohemians 0.80 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.25 / defence 0.75 against Bohemians attack 0.93 / defence 0.67, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 23%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 47%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG, Bohemians 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.