Sligo Rovers 0-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 36%, yet in-form Shamrock Rovers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Sligo Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Showgrounds, Sligo Rovers have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 40% versus Shamrock Rovers 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sligo Rovers 32% | Shamrock Rovers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.17 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.034 / defence 0.949 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.033 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.192. Data: 26 Sligo Rovers games / 25 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 36%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Shamrock Rovers 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 40% | Shamrock Rovers 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.17 / Shamrock Rovers 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.034 / def 0.949 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.033 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Shamrock Rovers xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 36% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 1.03x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.03x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.56
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.34
1.17
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.17 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 13W 5D 7L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sligo Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 16W 5D 4L from 25 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 2.12 for Shamrock Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.67 PPG from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 8W 1D 3L from 12 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.68 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shamrock Rovers in 60%.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 13W 5D 7L in their last 25 games (1.76 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 16W 5D 4L in their last 25 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.67 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 on 13 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 4, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 42%, Shamrock Rovers 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sligo Rovers) and 42% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 42% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Shamrock Rovers defy the odds to beat Sligo Rovers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Sligo Rovers 0-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.17 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.17 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 36%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 32%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.76 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.