Sligo Rovers 2-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derry City make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 23 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at The Showgrounds this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Derry City have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.60 for Derry City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 42% versus Derry City 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sligo Rovers 31% | Derry City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.97 xG and Derry City 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.974 / defence 0.956 | Derry City attack 1.190 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.249. Derry City's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Sligo Rovers games / 53 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 25% | Draw 27% | Derry City 47%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Derry City 2.13. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sligo Rovers 40% | Derry City 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Monday 23 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 25% | Draw 27% | Derry City 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.97 / Derry City 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.974 / def 0.956 | Derry City attack 1.190 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Derry City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Derry City xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Derry City kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 23 May 2022 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Sligo Rovers 2 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 25% chance of winning, Derry City a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Derry City in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sligo Rovers's attack rating (0.97) and Derry City's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.19x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
25%
3.94
27%
3.64
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.39
1.42
Derry City xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
6%
16.34
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.42 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 16W 9D 11L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 14W 12D 10L from 36 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.50 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.36 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City in 61%.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Derry City in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 games (1.58 PPG), while Derry City have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Derry City away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.61 PPG; Derry City away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Derry City in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 22 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 44%, Derry City 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Sligo Rovers) and 50% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 61% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 50% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Derry City tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Derry City in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Derry City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Derry City 2-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.97 xG and Derry City 1.42 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sligo Rovers beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Derry City attack 1.19 / defence 0.77, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 25% | Draw 27% | Derry City 47%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sligo Rovers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 31%, Derry City 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.58 PPG, Derry City 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.