Sligo Rovers 0-4 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 4W 4D 2L at Showgrounds — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.20 for Bohemians. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sligo Rovers, 3 for Bohemians and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 46% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 50% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.18 xG and Bohemians 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.968 / defence 0.994 | Bohemians attack 1.074 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 0.971. Data: 37 Sligo Rovers games / 37 Bohemians games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 37% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 30%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Bohemians 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 40% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 37% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.18 / Bohemians 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.968 / def 0.994 | Bohemians attack 1.074 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.223 / away 0.971 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bohemians xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 4 Bohemians.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 37% chance of winning, Bohemians a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
Record (6 meetings): Sligo Rovers 1W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 3W.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.97x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.07x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
37%
2.68
33%
3.06
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.22
1.04
Bohemians xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.04 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 24W 18D 30L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.33 PPG from 72 outings (26W 18D 28L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.33 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 14W 10D 12L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.28 points per game from 36 outings (12W 10D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.21 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 18D 30L in their last 72 games (1.25 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.44 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Bohemians have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Bohemians 3-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 44%, Bohemians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sligo Rovers) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 36% of games; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 47% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Sligo Rovers 0-4 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.18 xG and Bohemians 1.04 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bohemians outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Bohemians attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 37% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 30%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 50%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.25 PPG, Bohemians 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.