Shelbourne 1-2 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers meet at Tolka Park in Premier Division (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Shelbourne's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Shelbourne have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sligo Rovers have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Sligo Rovers away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Shelbourne. A 1.40 PPG lead over Sligo Rovers (2.10 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Shelbourne's last 10 home games and Sligo Rovers's last 10 away games) — Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Sligo Rovers in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sligo Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Sligo Rovers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 36% | Sligo Rovers 49%). Note also that Sligo Rovers surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Shelbourne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.25 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.891 / defence 0.780 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.056 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.008. Shelbourne have a tight defence (rating 0.780), which is pulling Sligo Rovers's projected output down. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 55 games and Sligo Rovers's last 53.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 25%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.17 | Draw 3.41 | Sligo Rovers 4.05. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 80% (last 10 home games) | Sligo Rovers 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 18 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 31 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Shelbourne 1.25 / Sligo Rovers 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.891 / def 0.780 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.056 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sligo Rovers xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 31 May 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Shelbourne 1 - 2 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 18) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 46% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shelbourne's attack at 0.89x the league average against Sligo Rovers's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.06x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 55 games and Sligo Rovers's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.41
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.07
0.83
Sligo Rovers xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
7%
14.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.83 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 25W 26D 21L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 24W 17D 31L from 72 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.24 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 36 home games (14W 13D 9L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 8W 8D 20L from their last 36 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.18 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs Sligo Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 games (1.40 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 31L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.53 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won Shelbourne 5-1 Sligo Rovers on 9 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
3
Draws
1
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 6, Sligo Rovers have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Shelbourne 5-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, Sligo Rovers 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shelbourne) and 56% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 31% of games; Sligo Rovers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Shelbourne's games and 58% of Sligo Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shelbourne's recent games and 56% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 78% of Sligo Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Shelbourne 1-2 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.25 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.83 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sligo Rovers outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.89 / defence 0.78 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.06 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 25%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Sligo Rovers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.40 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.