Shelbourne 2-0 Galway United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shelbourne face Galway United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Galway United travel to Tolka Park to take on Shelbourne in Premier Division (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Friday 28 June 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shelbourne stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.92 xG and Galway United 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.830 / defence 0.846 | Galway United attack 0.863 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 0.971. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 58 games and Galway United's last 20.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 39% | Draw 35% | Galway United 27%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.58 | Draw 2.89 | Galway United 3.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Galway United's lower xG of 0.71 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 77% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Galway United | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 22 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 June 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 39% | Draw 35% | Galway United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% (Under 77%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG Shelbourne 0.92 / Galway United 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.830 / def 0.846 | Galway United attack 0.863 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.226 / away 0.971 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Galway United xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs Galway United FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs Galway United kick off?
Shelbourne vs Galway United kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 28 June 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Galway United?
Shelbourne 2 - 0 Galway United.
Where is Shelbourne vs Galway United being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Galway United part of?
Shelbourne vs Galway United is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 22) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Galway United?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 39% chance of winning, Galway United a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Galway United?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Shelbourne and Galway United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will Shelbourne vs Galway United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (77%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Galway United's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Galway United's attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 58 games and Galway United's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
39%
2.58
35%
2.89
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
1.63
0.71
Galway United xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.27
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 13.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs Galway United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Galway United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.2%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Galway United expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.71 for Galway United, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Galway United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
Galway United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Shelbourne (Home) vs Galway United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
Galway United
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 25 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Shelbourne's record when hosting Galway United specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
7
Draws
1
Galway United
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs Galway United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Galway United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 2, Galway United have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Galway United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 September 2026: Galway United 1-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Galway United?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Galway United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shelbourne cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Galway United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Galway United 2-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.92 xG and Galway United 0.71 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.83 / defence 0.85 against Galway United attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 39% | Draw 35% | Galway United 27%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.