Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 5 as Shamrock Rovers welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 2.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Shamrock Rovers, 2 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shamrock Rovers in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 46% versus St Patrick's Athl. 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.47 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.037 / defence 0.967 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.112 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.053. Data: 39 Shamrock Rovers games / 40 St Patrick's Athl. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 28%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shamrock Rovers 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.47 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.037 / def 0.967 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.112 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.13
St Patrick's Athl. xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 43% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (2 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 0W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 2W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.04) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.47
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.60
1.13
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
6%
15.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.13 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 37W 22D 13L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.68 PPG from 72 outings (36W 13D 23L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shamrock Rovers on 1.85 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 22W 9D 5L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.47 points per game from 36 outings (15W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.53 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 37W 22D 13L in their last 72 games (1.85 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 13D 23L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.08 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
4
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Shamrock Rovers) and 56% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.47 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.13 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.11 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 28%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.