Shamrock Rovers 1-2 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers meet at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shamrock Rovers's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Tallaght Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 1.50 for Sligo Rovers. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Shamrock Rovers, 3 for Sligo Rovers and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 54% versus Sligo Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 50% | Sligo Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.57 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.189 / defence 0.726 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.674 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.243. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Shamrock Rovers games / 53 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 13%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.67 | Draw 3.70 | Sligo Rovers 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Sligo Rovers 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 37% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.57 / Sligo Rovers 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.189 / def 0.726 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.674 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Sligo Rovers xG
37%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 May 2026 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 2 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 60% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 13% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers?
Record (8 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 4W | Draws 1 | Sligo Rovers 3W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shamrock Rovers's attack at 1.19x the league average against Sligo Rovers's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.67x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
60%
1.67
27%
3.72
13%
7.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.18
0.61
Sligo Rovers xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
7.56
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
3%
36.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.61 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shamrock Rovers's recent record stands at 36W 19D 17L from 72 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 30L across 72 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sligo Rovers heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shamrock Rovers have managed 21W 9D 6L from 36 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 10W 8D 18L across 36 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.14 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 games (1.76 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 18D 30L in their last 72 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.00 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 on 13 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
4
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 44%, Sligo Rovers 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 64% (Sligo Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 47% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 64% of Sligo Rovers's.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Shamrock Rovers 1-2 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.57 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.61 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sligo Rovers outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.19 / defence 0.73 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.67 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 60% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 13%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Sligo Rovers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 50%, Sligo Rovers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Sligo Rovers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.