Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shamrock Rovers and Derry City meet at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derry City away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Shamrock Rovers 3W, Derry City 1W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Derry City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 54% versus Derry City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 50% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.32 xG and Derry City 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.049 / defence 0.874 | Derry City attack 1.059 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.053. Data: 39 Shamrock Rovers games / 40 Derry City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 31% | Derry City 26%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Derry City 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Shamrock Rovers dominate the H2H record, yet Derry City are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Derry City 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 31% | Derry City 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.32 / Derry City 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.049 / def 0.874 | Derry City attack 1.059 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Derry City xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 Derry City.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 43% chance of winning, Derry City a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
Record (6 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 3W | Draws 2 | Derry City 1W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.05) and Derry City's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.06x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (39/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
43%
2.32
31%
3.26
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.30
0.97
Derry City xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.97 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 36W 19D 17L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.64 PPG from 72 outings (32W 22D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 1.64 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 21W 9D 6L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.44 points per game from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.39 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 games (1.76 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Derry City away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.00 PPG; Derry City away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Derry City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shamrock Rovers
4
Draws
2
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, Derry City have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Derry City 3-3 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 44%, Derry City 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 36% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Derry City in 39%; Derry City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 42% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 36% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Derry City tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derry City in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Derry City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Derry City 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.32 xG and Derry City 0.97 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derry City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Derry City attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 31% | Derry City 26%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 50%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.76 PPG, Derry City 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.