Longford Town 2-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Longford Town vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Dundalk travel to Bishopsgate Stadium to take on Longford Town. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 May 2021, 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.67 xG and Dundalk 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.754 / defence 1.185 | Dundalk attack 1.009 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 0.748 / away 1.164. Longford Town's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Longford Town games / 8 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Longford Town 17% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 54%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 5.88 | Draw 3.45 | Dundalk 1.85. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 17% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG Longford Town 0.67 / Dundalk 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.754 / def 1.185 | Dundalk attack 1.009 / def 1.183 | league avg home 0.748 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Dundalk xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Dundalk kick off?
Longford Town vs Dundalk kicked off at 17:45 on Monday 3 May 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Longford Town 2 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Longford Town vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Dundalk part of?
Longford Town vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 17% chance of winning, Dundalk a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Longford Town and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Longford Town and Dundalk in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
17%
5.88
29%
3.40
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.06
1.39
Dundalk xG
5.88
17%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
4%
23.61
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 17.7 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.39 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Longford Town's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Longford Town
2
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Dundalk?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 1, Dundalk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Dundalk 2-0 Longford Town.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Longford Town and Dundalk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Longford Town and Dundalk drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.67 xG and Dundalk 1.39 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Longford Town beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.75 / defence 1.19 against Dundalk attack 1.01 / defence 1.18, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 17% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 54%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.