Longford Town 2-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Longford Town face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dundalk travel to Bishopsgate Stadium to take on Longford Town in Premier Division (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Monday 3 May 2021 at 18:45 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.67 xG and Dundalk 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.754 / defence 1.185 | Dundalk attack 1.009 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 0.748 / away 1.164. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Data: built from Longford Town's last 8 games and Dundalk's last 8.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 17% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 54%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 5.88 | Draw 3.40 | Dundalk 1.87. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 9 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 17% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Longford Town 0.67 / Dundalk 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.754 / def 1.185 | Dundalk attack 1.009 / def 1.183 | league avg home 0.748 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Dundalk xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Longford Town vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Longford Town vs Dundalk kick off?
Longford Town vs Dundalk kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Monday 3 May 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Longford Town 2 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Longford Town vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Dundalk part of?
Longford Town vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 9) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 17% chance of winning, Dundalk a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Longford Town and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Longford Town vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Longford Town's last 8 games and Dundalk's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
17%
5.88
29%
3.40
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.06
1.39
Dundalk xG
5.88
17%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
4%
23.61
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 17.7 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Longford Town vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.39 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Longford Town (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 7 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Longford Town's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Longford Town
2
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Longford Town vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Dundalk?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Longford Town have won 1, Dundalk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2021: Dundalk 2-0 Longford Town.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Longford Town and Dundalk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Longford Town and Dundalk drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.67 xG and Dundalk 1.39 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Longford Town beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.75 / defence 1.19 against Dundalk attack 1.01 / defence 1.18, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 17% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 54%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.