Finn Harps 2-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. meet at Finn Park in Premier Division (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 June 2022 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
Finn Harps (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Finn Harps have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Finn Harps's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) — Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, St Patrick's Athl. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to St Patrick's Athl., who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2022, ended Finn Harps 0–2 St Patrick's Athl. — a St Patrick's Athl. win.
The H2H data backs the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Finn Harps — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 61% versus St Patrick's Athl. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 58% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.67 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.720 / defence 1.165 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.098 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.041. Finn Harps's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. St Patrick's Athl. bring a tight defence (rating 0.743, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Finn Harps's projected output down. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 55 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 56.
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 19% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 53%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 5.37 | Draw 3.49 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.90. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (St Patrick's Athl. 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Finn Harps 70% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 21 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 June 2022 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 19% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Finn Harps 0.67 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.720 / def 1.165 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.098 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.33
St Patrick's Athl. xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. FAQs
What time does Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 24 June 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Finn Harps 2 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 21) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 19% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 53% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Finn Harps's attack rating (0.72) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (1.10x) against Finn Harps's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Finn Harps's last 55 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
19%
5.37
29%
3.49
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.00
1.33
St Patrick's Athl. xG
5.37
19%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
5%
20.33
27%
3.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 18.1 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.33 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 11W 11D 14L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 18W 8D 10L from 36 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Finn Harps.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 18 home games (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 6D 6L from their last 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Finn Harps are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.56 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Finn Harps (Home) vs St Patrick's Athl. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Finn Harps
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. Form FAQs
What form are Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.17 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Finn Harps or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl., the earliest from April 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 2 September 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 4-1 Finn Harps on 21 Jun 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Finn Harps have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
2
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl.?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Finn Harps have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2022: St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 61%, St Patrick's Athl. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Finn Harps) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Finn Harps's games and 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Finn Harps's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 2-2 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.67 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.33 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Finn Harps beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.10 / defence 0.74, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 19% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 53%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 58%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.