Finn Harps 0-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Bohemians travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 September 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Finn Harps's home record at Finn Park: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Bohemians — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bohemians away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Finn Harps 0.70 PPG, Bohemians 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Finn Harps have won 2, Bohemians 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Finn Harps trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Finn Harps 57% and Bohemians 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 63% | Bohemians 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.35 xG and Bohemians 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 1.054 / defence 1.183 | Bohemians attack 1.008 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.980. Data: 65 Finn Harps games / 65 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 41% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 32%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Finn Harps 40% | Bohemians 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 41% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Finn Harps 1.35 / Bohemians 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 1.054 / def 1.183 | Bohemians attack 1.008 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.980 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Bohemians xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Bohemians kick off?
Finn Harps vs Bohemians kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Finn Harps 0 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Finn Harps vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Bohemians part of?
Finn Harps vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 41% chance of winning, Bohemians a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Finn Harps and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Bohemians?
Record (6 meetings): Finn Harps 2W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 2W.
What form are Finn Harps and Bohemians in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 1.05x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.74
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.52
1.17
Bohemians xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.17 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Finn Harps come into this having played 65 games, going 15W 17D 33L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.35 PPG from 65 outings (23W 19D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Finn Harps — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Finn Harps's home form reads 8W 9D 15L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.19 points per game from 32 outings (9W 11D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.46 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 65%.
Last 65 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 15W 17D 33L in their last 65 games (0.95 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 23W 19D 23L in their last 65 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.03 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2021, when Bohemians won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Finn Harps
3
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Bohemians?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 21 October 2022, when Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 53%, Bohemians 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Finn Harps) and 41% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Finn Harps's games and 66% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Finn Harps vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Finn Harps's recent games and 41% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Bohemians tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Finn Harps 0-2 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.35 xG and Bohemians 1.17 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Finn Harps fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bohemians outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 1.05 / defence 1.18 against Bohemians attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 41% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 32%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 63%, Bohemians 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.