Dundalk 0-5 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 4). Kick-off: Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Dundalk at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sligo Rovers's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Sligo Rovers away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Dundalk's favour (1.80 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Dundalk's last 10 home games and Sligo Rovers's last 10 away games) — Dundalk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sligo Rovers in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Dundalk edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Dundalk 2–0 Sligo Rovers — a Dundalk win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 50% versus Sligo Rovers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 51% | Sligo Rovers 49%). Note also that Sligo Rovers surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Dundalk recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.42 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.002 / defence 1.074 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.032 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.218. Data: built from Dundalk's last 38 games and Sligo Rovers's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 38% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 35%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.60 | Draw 3.78 | Sligo Rovers 2.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dundalk's last 10 home games and Sligo Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dundalk 60% (last 10 home games) | Sligo Rovers 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Dundalk 38 games, Sligo Rovers 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 4 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 38% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Dundalk 1.42 / Sligo Rovers 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.002 / def 1.074 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.032 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sligo Rovers xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 4 March 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk 0 - 5 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 4) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 38% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.03x) against Dundalk's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 38 games and Sligo Rovers's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.78
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.77
1.35
Sligo Rovers xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.35 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 34W 19D 19L from 72 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 31L across 72 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sligo Rovers heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 22W 10D 4L from their last 36 home games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 8W 8D 20L across their last 36 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.18 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk (Home) vs Sligo Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 31L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Dundalk's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.11 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won Dundalk 0-5 Sligo Rovers on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
3
Draws
3
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 4, Sligo Rovers have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Sligo Rovers 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Sligo Rovers 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dundalk) and 56% (Sligo Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and Sligo Rovers matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dundalk's games and 58% of Sligo Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Dundalk's matches and 56% of Sligo Rovers's.
Do Dundalk and Sligo Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Dundalk's recent matches and 78% of Sligo Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sligo Rovers run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Dundalk 0-5 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.42 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.35 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sligo Rovers outscored their 1.35 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.00 / defence 1.07 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 38/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 38% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 35%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 51%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Sligo Rovers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.