Dundalk 0-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shelbourne (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dundalk face Shelbourne.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 4W 4D 2L at Oriel Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shelbourne's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Shelbourne are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Shelbourne have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Dundalk's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with Shelbourne winning.
It is worth noting that Shelbourne have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 48% versus Shelbourne 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 43% | Shelbourne 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.80 xG and Shelbourne 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.763 / defence 1.051 | Shelbourne attack 1.079 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.985. Dundalk's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shelbourne's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Dundalk games / 63 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 35% | Shelbourne 41%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Shelbourne 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 10% | Shelbourne 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 35% | Shelbourne 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Dundalk 0.80 / Shelbourne 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.763 / def 1.051 | Shelbourne attack 1.079 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Shelbourne xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shelbourne kick off?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Dundalk 0 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Dundalk vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shelbourne part of?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 24% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Dundalk and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Record (6 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 3 | Shelbourne 3W.
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in?
Dundalk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Shelbourne (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 0.76x the league average against Shelbourne's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.08x) against Dundalk's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
24%
4.19
35%
2.83
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.91
1.12
Shelbourne xG
4.19
24%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 16.5 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.12 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 22W 16D 25L from 63 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 28W 25D 10L across 63 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shelbourne by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 14W 10D 7L from 31 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 12W 13D 6L across 31 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.17 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 22W 16D 25L in their last 63 games (1.30 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 28W 25D 10L in their last 63 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shelbourne away?
Dundalk's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.68 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
3
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Shelbourne have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 42%, Shelbourne 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Dundalk) and 29% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Shelbourne in 45%; Dundalk have failed to score in 32% of games; Shelbourne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Dundalk's recent matches and 42% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Dundalk's recent games and 29% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Dundalk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Dundalk 0-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.80 xG and Shelbourne 1.12 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.76 / defence 1.05 against Shelbourne attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 24% | Draw 35% | Shelbourne 41%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 43%, Shelbourne 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shelbourne's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.