Dundalk 1-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 2 as Dundalk welcome Finn Harps to Oriel Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 March 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.97 xG and Finn Harps 0.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | Finn Harps attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.862 / away 0.406. Data: 1 Dundalk games / 1 Finn Harps games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 46% | Draw 42% | Finn Harps 12%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.17 | Draw 2.38 | Finn Harps 8.33. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (42%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.37. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.37 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Finn Harps's lower xG of 0.40 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 42% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.37 combined xG gives a 16% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Mar 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 46% | Draw 42% | Finn Harps 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 23% | xG Dundalk 0.97 / Finn Harps 0.40 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | Finn Harps attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.862 / away 0.406 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.40
Finn Harps xG
23%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Finn Harps kick off?
Dundalk vs Finn Harps kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 26 March 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Dundalk 1 - 2 Finn Harps.
Where is Dundalk vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Finn Harps part of?
Dundalk vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 46% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 12% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Dundalk and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Finn Harps in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dundalk's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Finn Harps's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 0.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 26.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (23.4%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 62% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
46%
2.17
42%
2.38
12%
8.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
24.7%
Home win
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.37
0.40
Finn Harps xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.38
42%
Draw
8.47
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
40%
Over 1.5
2.50
60%
Under 1.5
1.67
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.28
77%
BTTS No
1.30
Clean Sheet
67%
1.49
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
4%
22.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.4 | 10.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 24.7 | 9.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.40 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 1.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dundalk and Finn Harps runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dundalk have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2022, when Dundalk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Finn Harps have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2022, when Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Finn Harps defy the odds to beat Dundalk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps beat Dundalk 1-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.97 xG and Finn Harps 0.40 xG, a combined 1.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Finn Harps outscored their 0.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Finn Harps attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 46% | Draw 42% | Finn Harps 12%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Finn Harps win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.