Drogheda United 0-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Drogheda United face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 July 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Drogheda United's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Weavers Park, Drogheda United have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Shamrock Rovers arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Shamrock Rovers hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2026, ended 1–4 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
It is worth noting that Shamrock Rovers have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 56% versus Shamrock Rovers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 46% | Shamrock Rovers 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.04 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.882 / defence 1.059 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.026 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.287. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Drogheda United games / 61 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 25% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 42%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Shamrock Rovers 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 50% | Shamrock Rovers 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 25% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Drogheda United 1.04 / Shamrock Rovers 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.882 / def 1.059 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.026 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Shamrock Rovers xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 July 2026 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Drogheda United 0 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 25% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (9 meetings): Drogheda United 0W | Draws 2 | Shamrock Rovers 7W.
What form are Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 0.88x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.03x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
25%
3.98
32%
3.08
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.44
1.40
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.13
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.40 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 18W 23D 20L from 61 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 34W 14D 13L across 61 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Drogheda United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 11W 11D 8L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 13W 9D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.57 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 18W 23D 20L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 34W 14D 13L in their last 61 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.47 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 3-0 on 9 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Drogheda United
3
Draws
7
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 0, Shamrock Rovers have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 50%, Shamrock Rovers 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Drogheda United) and 53% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Drogheda United's games and 67% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Drogheda United's recent games and 53% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Drogheda United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 26, as Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.04 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.40 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Drogheda United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.03 / defence 0.80, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 25% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 42%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 46%, Shamrock Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.