Drogheda United 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dundalk at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Drogheda United vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Dundalk meet at Head in the Game Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 July 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Drogheda United (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Drogheda United have posted 4W 3D 3L at Head in the Game Park — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Head in the Game Park than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Dundalk arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 51% versus Dundalk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 44% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 0.91 xG and Dundalk 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.884 / defence 1.039 | Dundalk attack 0.834 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.084. Dundalk's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Drogheda United games / 57 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 33% | Draw 32% | Dundalk 35%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Dundalk 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 40% | Dundalk 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Friday 8 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 33% | Draw 32% | Dundalk 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Drogheda United 0.91 / Dundalk 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.884 / def 1.039 | Dundalk attack 0.834 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Dundalk xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Dundalk kick off?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 8 July 2022 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Drogheda United 1 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Drogheda United vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Dundalk part of?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 33% chance of winning, Dundalk a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Drogheda United and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Dundalk (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 0.88x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.83x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.10
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
1.85
0.94
Dundalk xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.94 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 17W 15D 25L from 57 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 16L across 57 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Drogheda United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 11W 7D 10L from 28 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 6W 13D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.32 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 games (1.16 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 24W 17D 16L in their last 57 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Dundalk away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.43 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Dundalk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Drogheda United
4
Draws
4
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 2, Dundalk have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 46%, Dundalk 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Drogheda United) and 36% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 36% of games; Dundalk in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 54% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Drogheda United's recent games and 36% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Dundalk tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Drogheda United defy the odds to beat Dundalk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Dundalk 1-0 at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 0.91 xG and Dundalk 0.94 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Dundalk attack 0.83 / defence 0.79, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 33% | Draw 32% | Dundalk 35%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Drogheda United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 44%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Dundalk's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Drogheda United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Drogheda United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.