Drogheda United 0-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Drogheda United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Drogheda United vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Dundalk meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Drogheda United (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Drogheda United have posted 3W 4D 3L at Weavers Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dundalk have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Drogheda United's 1.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Dundalk's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Dundalk hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2024, ended 2–4 with Dundalk winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dundalk have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 56% versus Dundalk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 55% | Dundalk 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.73 xG and Dundalk 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.198 / defence 0.967 | Dundalk attack 0.932 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.025. Data: 71 Drogheda United games / 71 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 55% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 18%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Drogheda United (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Dundalk lead the H2H ledger, but Drogheda United carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 40% | Dundalk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 55% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Drogheda United 1.73 / Dundalk 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.198 / def 0.967 | Dundalk attack 0.932 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Dundalk xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Dundalk kick off?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Drogheda United 0 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Drogheda United vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Dundalk part of?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 55% chance of winning, Dundalk a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Drogheda United and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Record (6 meetings): Drogheda United 1W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 4W.
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Dundalk (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 1.20x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.93x) against Drogheda United's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.73
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.65
0.92
Dundalk xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
3%
30.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.92 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 17W 23D 31L from 71 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 32L across 71 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Drogheda United against 1.17 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 11W 13D 11L from 35 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 8W 7D 20L across 35 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Drogheda United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.15 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 17W 23D 31L in their last 71 games (1.04 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 22W 17D 32L in their last 71 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Dundalk away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.31 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Drogheda United
4
Draws
4
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 2, Dundalk have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 54%, Dundalk 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Drogheda United) and 43% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 34% of games; Dundalk in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Drogheda United's games and 57% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Drogheda United vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Drogheda United's recent games and 43% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Dundalk tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Drogheda United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United and Dundalk finished level at 0-0 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.73 xG and Dundalk 0.92 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Drogheda United fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Dundalk landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.20 / defence 0.97 against Dundalk attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 55% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 18%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 55%, Dundalk 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dundalk's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.04 PPG, Dundalk 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.