Derry City 4-2 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Derry City face Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host Waterford at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Derry City — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derry City have posted 4W 5D 1L at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Waterford's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Derry City have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derry City register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Waterford in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Derry City hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 2 for Waterford, with 0 draws in between.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Derry City winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Derry City and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Derry City in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 53% versus Waterford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.47 xG and Waterford 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.140 / defence 1.054 | Waterford attack 0.885 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.016. Data: 39 Derry City games / 39 Waterford games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Derry City 45% | Draw 34% | Waterford 21%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Waterford 4.76. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 70% | Waterford 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 45% | Draw 34% | Waterford 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Derry City 1.47 / Waterford 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.140 / def 1.054 | Waterford attack 0.885 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Derry City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Waterford xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Waterford kick off?
Derry City vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 February 2026 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Derry City 4 - 2 Waterford.
Where is Derry City vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Waterford part of?
Derry City vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 45% chance of winning, Waterford a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derry City and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
Record (7 meetings): Derry City 5W | Draws 0 | Waterford 2W.
What form are Derry City and Waterford in?
Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derry City's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
45%
2.20
34%
2.95
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.41
0.95
Waterford xG
2.20
45%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
20.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Derry City and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Derry City and 0.95 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 32W 22D 18L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 25W 11D 36L from 72 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.83 PPG from 36 outings (18W 12D 6L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 11W 5D 20L from 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derry City are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.18 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Waterford in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 games (1.64 PPG), while Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Waterford away?
Derry City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.83 PPG; Waterford away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Derry City or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Waterford in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derry City's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Derry City
1
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 6, Waterford have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Derry City 2-4 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Waterford?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 64%, Waterford 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Waterford in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Waterford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Derry City's games and 47% of Waterford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Waterford tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Waterford in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Waterford 4-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.47 xG and Waterford 0.95 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waterford outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against Waterford attack 0.89 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 45% | Draw 34% | Waterford 21%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.