Derry City 2-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Derry City at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derry City face St Patrick's Athl..

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Match Analysis

Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 3). Kick-off is Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Derry City have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Derry City's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derry City at 1.90 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

In-Play Data

Derry City trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 42% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.25 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.198 / defence 0.854 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.959 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.248. Data: built from Derry City's last 38 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 28%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.54 | Draw 3.06 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derry City 30% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 40% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Derry City 38 games, St Patrick's Athl. 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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