Derry City 1-0 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derry City at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derry City have posted 3W 5D 2L at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Derry City against 1.90 for Sligo Rovers. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Derry City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sligo Rovers in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 60% versus Sligo Rovers 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 46% | Sligo Rovers 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.39 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.047 / defence 0.801 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.048 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.011. Data: 65 Derry City games / 65 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 50% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 23%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Sligo Rovers 4.35. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Derry City 60% | Sligo Rovers 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 50% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Derry City 1.39 / Sligo Rovers 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.047 / def 0.801 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.048 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Derry City (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Sligo Rovers xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Derry City vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Derry City 1 - 0 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Derry City vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Derry City vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 50% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Derry City and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Sligo Rovers in?
Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.05) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.05x) against Derry City's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.64
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.24
0.85
Sligo Rovers xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
6%
17.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Derry City and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Derry City and 0.85 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 29W 22D 14L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 28W 17D 20L from 65 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Derry City against 1.55 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (12W 14D 6L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 12W 8D 12L from 32 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Derry City are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.29 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 29W 22D 14L in their last 65 games (1.68 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 28W 17D 20L in their last 65 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Derry City's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.56 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Derry City or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 22 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Derry City
3
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Sligo Rovers?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 59%, Sligo Rovers 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Derry City) and 44% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 34%; Sligo Rovers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Derry City's recent matches and 47% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Derry City's recent games and 44% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Sligo Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Sligo Rovers 1-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.39 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.85 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 50% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 23%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 46%, Sligo Rovers 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.68 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.