Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cork City face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Shamrock Rovers travel to Turners Cross to take on Cork City. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 September 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Cork City have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cork City's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Turners Cross this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cork City register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shamrock Rovers in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Cork City have won 1, Shamrock Rovers 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2025, ended 1–4 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cork City trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cork City 69% and Shamrock Rovers 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 48% | Shamrock Rovers 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.05 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.848 / defence 1.082 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.094 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.044. Data: 29 Cork City games / 64 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 31% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 40%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Shamrock Rovers 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cork City 60% | Shamrock Rovers 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Turners Cross • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 31% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Cork City 1.05 / Shamrock Rovers 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.848 / def 1.082 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.094 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Shamrock Rovers xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 September 2025 at Turners Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Cork City 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Turners Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 31% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cork City and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (7 meetings): Cork City 1W | Draws 3 | Shamrock Rovers 3W.
What form are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers in?
Cork City (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cork City's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
31%
3.22
29%
3.50
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.28
1.24
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cork City and 1.24 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cork City's recent record stands at 4W 10D 15L from 29 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 4L across 29 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cork City have managed 4W 6D 4L from 14 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.76 PPG overall — Cork City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 6W 5D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cork City are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.72 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cork City have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 4W 10D 15L in their last 29 games (0.76 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 17W 8D 4L in their last 29 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.29 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Cork City or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cork City have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cork City's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cork City
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cork City at 64%, Shamrock Rovers at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Cork City) and 57% (Shamrock Rovers).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cork City play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cork City's games and 71% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Cork City's recent games and 57% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cork City and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Cork City have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cork City and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cork City and Shamrock Rovers finished level at 1-1 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.05 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 29/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 31% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 40%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 48%, Shamrock Rovers 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.