Bohemians 1-2 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 51%, yet in-form Waterford provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 32 as Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waterford's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Waterford's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 60% versus Waterford 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 57% | Waterford 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.69 xG and Waterford 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.194 / defence 1.254 | Waterford attack 0.784 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.139. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Bohemians games / 30 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 51% | Draw 24% | Waterford 25%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Waterford 4.00. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waterford (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 60% | Waterford 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 25 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 51% | Draw 24% | Waterford 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Bohemians 1.69 / Waterford 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.194 / def 1.254 | Waterford attack 0.784 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Waterford xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Waterford kick off?
Bohemians vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 25 October 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Bohemians 1 - 2 Waterford.
Where is Bohemians vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Waterford part of?
Bohemians vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 51% chance of winning, Waterford a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bohemians and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Waterford (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.19x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.14
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.80
1.12
Waterford xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
5%
21.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.12 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians's recent record stands at 12W 7D 11L from 30 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Waterford, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 16L across 30 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.43 PPG, Waterford on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waterford's away record stands at 5W 1D 9L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Waterford have gone 11W 3D 16L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Waterford away?
Bohemians's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.67 PPG; Waterford away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
2
Draws
5
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Waterford have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bohemians 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 60%, Waterford 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Bohemians and 60% for Waterford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 7% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Waterford in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bohemians's recent matches and 47% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Bohemians's matches and 60% of Waterford's.
Do Bohemians and Waterford tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Waterford in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Bohemians 1-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.69 xG and Waterford 1.12 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.19 / defence 1.25 against Waterford attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 51% | Draw 24% | Waterford 25%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 57%, Waterford 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Waterford's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.43 PPG, Waterford 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.