Bohemians 3-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 14 as Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 May 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.19 xG and Waterford 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.524 / defence 1.234 | Waterford attack 0.578 / defence 1.554. League average goals — home 0.924 / away 1.304. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.524 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.554 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Bohemians games / 13 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 66% | Draw 19% | Waterford 15%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Waterford 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 66% | Draw 19% | Waterford 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Bohemians 2.19 / Waterford 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.524 / def 1.234 | Waterford attack 0.578 / def 1.554 | league avg home 0.924 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Waterford xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Waterford kick off?
Bohemians vs Waterford kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Bohemians 3 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Bohemians vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Waterford part of?
Bohemians vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 66% chance of winning, Waterford a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bohemians and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.52x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.14
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.12
0.93
Waterford xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
11%
8.93
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
2%
60.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.93 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Waterford
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
2
Draws
5
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Waterford have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bohemians 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Waterford 3-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 2.19 xG and Waterford 0.93 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waterford landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.52 / defence 1.23 against Waterford attack 0.58 / defence 1.55, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 66% | Draw 19% | Waterford 15%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.