Bohemians 3-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 65%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and UCD meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
UCD have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
UCD arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Bohemians register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, UCD in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.61 xG and UCD 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.132 / defence 1.242 | UCD attack 0.843 / defence 1.863. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.232. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.863 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Bohemians games / 12 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 65% | Draw 18% | UCD 16%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | UCD 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.61 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.90 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 65% | Draw 18% | UCD 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 68% | xG Bohemians 2.61 / UCD 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.132 / def 1.242 | UCD attack 0.843 / def 1.863 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.29
UCD xG
68%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs UCD kick off?
Bohemians vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs UCD?
Bohemians 3 - 0 UCD.
Where is Bohemians vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs UCD part of?
Bohemians vs UCD is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 65% chance of winning, UCD a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Bohemians and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and UCD?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 0W | Draws 1 | UCD 0W.
What form are Bohemians and UCD in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against UCD's defensive record (1.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.61. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.84x) against Bohemians's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 48/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
65%
1.54
18%
5.41
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.90
1.29
UCD xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
7%
13.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
1%
82.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.29 for UCD, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
UCD's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, UCD are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. UCD's attacking output running into Bohemians's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; UCD in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Early Season
UCD
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and UCD in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, UCD have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2023, when UCD 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and UCD?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play UCD?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Bohemians's games and 100% of UCD's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bohemians's recent games and 100% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and UCD tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, UCD in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 3-0 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat UCD 3-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 2.61 xG and UCD 1.29 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. UCD landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.13 / defence 1.24 against UCD attack 0.84 / defence 1.86, drawn from 48/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 65% | Draw 18% | UCD 16%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 0%, UCD 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, UCD arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Bohemians winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. UCD managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.