Bohemians 1-3 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.81 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.963 / defence 1.238 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.897 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 0.778 / away 1.139. Data: 5 Bohemians games / 5 Sligo Rovers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 23% | Draw 31% | Sligo Rovers 46%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Sligo Rovers 2.17. Sligo Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sligo Rovers at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Apr 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 23% | Draw 31% | Sligo Rovers 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Bohemians 0.81 / Sligo Rovers 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.963 / def 1.238 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.897 / def 1.076 | league avg home 0.778 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sligo Rovers xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians 1 - 3 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 23% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bohemians and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.96) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.90x) against Bohemians's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
The sample (5/5 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
23%
4.34
31%
3.27
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.07
1.26
Sligo Rovers xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
7%
15.36
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 15.9 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.26 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sligo Rovers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Bohemians 1-3 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 0.81 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.26 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sligo Rovers outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.96 / defence 1.24 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 5/5 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 23% | Draw 31% | Sligo Rovers 46%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.