Bohemians 0-2 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 43%, yet in-form Sligo Rovers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Friday 12 July 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Bohemians's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Bohemians have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sligo Rovers (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sligo Rovers are 1.00 PPG clear of Bohemians over their recent games (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 47% versus Sligo Rovers 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 46% | Sligo Rovers 49%). Note also that Sligo Rovers surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Bohemians recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.45 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.918 / defence 1.181 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.091 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 0.921. Sligo Rovers's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians's last 57 games and Sligo Rovers's last 59.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 43% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 31%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.32 | Draw 3.86 | Sligo Rovers 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sligo Rovers (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 50% (last 10 home games) | Sligo Rovers 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 24 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 July 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 43% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Bohemians 1.45 / Sligo Rovers 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.918 / def 1.181 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.091 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.250 / away 0.921 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sligo Rovers xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 12 July 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians 0 - 2 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 24) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 43% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bohemians and Sligo Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.92) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.09x) against Bohemians's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 57 games and Sligo Rovers's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.86
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.63
1.19
Sligo Rovers xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.19 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 23W 15D 19L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 17W 13D 27L from 57 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Bohemians against 1.12 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 7D 8L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 5W 6D 17L from their last 28 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
Bohemians (Home) vs Sligo Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
❓ Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 23W 15D 19L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 17W 13D 27L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Bohemians's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.64 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Bohemians have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won Sligo Rovers 0-4 Bohemians on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 6, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Bohemians 3-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 54%, Sligo Rovers 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Bohemians) and 61% (Sligo Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Sligo Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bohemians's recent matches and 54% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Bohemians's matches and 61% of Sligo Rovers's.
Do Bohemians and Sligo Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Bohemians's recent matches and 79% of Sligo Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sligo Rovers cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Bohemians 0-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.45 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.19 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sligo Rovers outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.09 / defence 1.26, drawn from 57/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 43% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 31%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 46%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.47 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.