Bohemians 1-1 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Longford Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Longford Town travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 July 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians at Dalymount Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Longford Town — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Longford Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Longford Town's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Bohemians have the edge — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bohemians, 0 for Longford Town and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2021, ended 2–0 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Longford Town trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 47% versus Longford Town 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 58% | Longford Town 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.49 xG and Longford Town 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.629 / defence 0.996 | Longford Town attack 0.675 / defence 1.448. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.234. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.629 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Longford Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.448 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Bohemians games / 20 Longford Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 74% | Draw 16% | Longford Town 10%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Longford Town 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 50% | Longford Town 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 74% | Draw 16% | Longford Town 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 2.49 / Longford Town 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.629 / def 0.996 | Longford Town attack 0.675 / def 1.448 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Longford Town xG
52%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Longford Town kick off?
Bohemians vs Longford Town kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Longford Town?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Longford Town.
Where is Bohemians vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Longford Town part of?
Bohemians vs Longford Town is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 74% chance of winning, Longford Town a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians and Longford Town will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Longford Town?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1W | Draws 1 | Longford Town 0W.
What form are Bohemians and Longford Town in?
Bohemians (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Longford Town (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.63) and Longford Town's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
74%
1.36
16%
6.25
10%
9.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.32
0.83
Longford Town xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.25
16%
Draw
9.57
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
8%
12.01
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
1%
114.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.83 for Longford Town, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Longford Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 3D 7L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Longford Town sit at 0.37 PPG from 19 outings (0W 7D 12L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Longford Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Longford Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bohemians's home form reads 6W 0D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Bohemians are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Longford Town have taken 0.44 points per game from 9 outings (0W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Longford Town are on 0.63 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Longford Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Longford Town in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 9W 3D 7L in their last 19 games (1.58 PPG), while Longford Town have gone 0W 7D 12L in their last 19 (0.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Longford Town away?
Bohemians's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 2.00 PPG; Longford Town away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Longford Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Longford Town in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Longford Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2021, when Bohemians won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bohemians
2
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Longford Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, Longford Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Longford Town last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2021, when Longford Town 1-4 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Longford Town?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 44%, Longford Town 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Bohemians and 44% for Longford Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Longford Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Longford Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Bohemians's games and 67% of Longford Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Longford Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Bohemians's matches and 44% of Longford Town's.
Do Bohemians and Longford Town tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Longford Town in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Longford Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians and Longford Town finished level at 1-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 2.49 xG and Longford Town 0.83 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.63 / defence 1.00 against Longford Town attack 0.68 / defence 1.45, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 74% | Draw 16% | Longford Town 10%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 58%, Longford Town 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Longford Town's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Longford Town (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.