Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians face Finn Harps.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Finn Harps travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians in Premier Division (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022 at 20:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Bohemians — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Bohemians have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Finn Harps have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1.40 PPG, Finn Harps 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Bohemians's games and 60% of Finn Harps's (from Bohemians's last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bohemians, 2 for Finn Harps and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2022, ended Bohemians 1–1 Finn Harps — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Bohemians in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).

Finn Harps in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 67% and Finn Harps 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 58% | Finn Harps 58%). Note also that Finn Harps surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Bohemians recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.63 xG and Finn Harps 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.170 / defence 1.071 | Finn Harps attack 0.987 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.136. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians's last 45 games and Finn Harps's last 45.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 45% | Draw 29% | Finn Harps 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.21 | Draw 3.48 | Finn Harps 3.85. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians's last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 80% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights