Volos NFC 2-1 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Panserraikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Panserraikos at Panthessaliko Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 October 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panserraikos have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Panserraikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Volos NFC are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Volos NFC, 2 for Panserraikos and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 0–3 with Panserraikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Panserraikos trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 43% versus Panserraikos 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | Panserraikos 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.76 xG and Panserraikos 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.906 / defence 1.068 | Panserraikos attack 0.803 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.266. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Volos NFC games / 32 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 53% | Draw 23% | Panserraikos 23%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Panserraikos 4.35. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Volos NFC 30% | Panserraikos 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 53% | Draw 23% | Panserraikos 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Volos NFC 1.76 / Panserraikos 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.906 / def 1.068 | Panserraikos attack 0.803 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Panserraikos xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Panserraikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Panserraikos kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Volos NFC 2 - 1 Panserraikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 53% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Volos NFC and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
Record (7 meetings): Volos NFC 3W | Draws 2 | Panserraikos 2W.
What form are Volos NFC and Panserraikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.91) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.27
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.85
1.09
Panserraikos xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
4%
25.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.09 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 6D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 1.00 PPG from 42 outings (11W 9D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Panserraikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.14 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Volos NFC's home form reads 5W 4D 11L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.70 points per game from 20 outings (4W 2D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.05 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
Panserraikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 14W 6D 22L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 11W 9D 22L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Panserraikos away?
Volos NFC's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.95 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Panserraikos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2025, when Volos NFC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
2
Draws
3
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
From 9 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Panserraikos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Panserraikos 2-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 40%, Panserraikos 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Volos NFC) and 60% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 45% of games; Panserraikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 45% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Volos NFC's recent games and 60% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Panserraikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Panserraikos 2-1 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.76 xG and Panserraikos 1.09 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Panserraikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 53% | Draw 23% | Panserraikos 23%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Panserraikos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Panserraikos's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.14 PPG, Panserraikos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.