Volos NFC 1-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Panserraikos at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadio this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panserraikos have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Volos NFC 1.30 PPG, Panserraikos 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Volos NFC, 0 for Panserraikos and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Panserraikos trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 58% versus Panserraikos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 64% | Panserraikos 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.80 xG and Panserraikos 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.882 / defence 1.239 | Panserraikos attack 0.763 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 26 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 47% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 26%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Panserraikos 3.85. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 80% | Panserraikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 47% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Volos NFC 1.80 / Panserraikos 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.882 / def 1.239 | Panserraikos attack 0.763 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Panserraikos xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Panserraikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Panserraikos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Volos NFC 1 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Panserraikos is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 47% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Volos NFC and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
Record (2 meetings): Volos NFC 1W | Draws 1 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are Volos NFC and Panserraikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.88) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.70
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.29
Panserraikos xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
4%
23.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.29 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 31 games, going 7W 8D 16L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 1.13 PPG from 31 outings (8W 11D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 0.94 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Volos NFC's home form reads 4W 4D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.67 points per game from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.13 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Panserraikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 7W 8D 16L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 8W 11D 12L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Panserraikos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.07 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Panserraikos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2025, when Volos NFC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
2
Draws
3
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
From 9 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Panserraikos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Panserraikos 2-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 80%, Panserraikos 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Volos NFC and 40% for Panserraikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panserraikos in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Panserraikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Volos NFC's games and 33% of Panserraikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Volos NFC's matches and 40% of Panserraikos's.
Do Volos NFC and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Panserraikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Panserraikos 1-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.80 xG and Panserraikos 1.29 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.88 / defence 1.24 against Panserraikos attack 0.76 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 47% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 26%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 64%, Panserraikos 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Panserraikos's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 0.94 PPG, Panserraikos 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.