Volos NFC 3-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Panathinaikos travel to Panthessaliko Stadio to take on Volos NFC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 January 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos NFC have gone 3W 0D 4L this season (7 games, 1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadio than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Panathinaikos — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Volos NFC 86% and Panathinaikos 36% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 86% | Panathinaikos 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.08 xG and Panathinaikos 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.952 / defence 1.433 | Panathinaikos attack 0.748 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.172. Data: 14 Volos NFC games / 15 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 32% | Draw 28% | Panathinaikos 40%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Panathinaikos 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 71% | Panathinaikos 33%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 32% | Draw 28% | Panathinaikos 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Volos NFC 1.08 / Panathinaikos 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.952 / def 1.433 | Panathinaikos attack 0.748 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Panathinaikos xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos?
Volos NFC 3 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 32% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Volos NFC and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Panathinaikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.95) and Panathinaikos's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
32%
3.14
28%
3.58
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.26
Panathinaikos xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.26 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 3D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (7W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Volos NFC's home form reads 2W 0D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.57 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 7W 2D 5L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Panathinaikos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.00 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when Panathinaikos won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
1
Draws
8
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Panathinaikos 2-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 67%, Panathinaikos 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Volos NFC) and 33% (Panathinaikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 33% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Volos NFC's matches and 33% of Panathinaikos's.
Do Volos NFC and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Panathinaikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Panathinaikos 3-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.08 xG and Panathinaikos 1.26 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.95 / defence 1.43 against Panathinaikos attack 0.75 / defence 1.10, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 32% | Draw 28% | Panathinaikos 40%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 86%, Panathinaikos 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Volos NFC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.