Volos NFC 5-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Volos NFC versus OFI in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos NFC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
OFI away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Volos NFC, 1.20 for OFI — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 62% versus OFI 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 59% | OFI 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.97 xG and OFI 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.836 / defence 1.245 | OFI attack 0.819 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 1.050. Data: 26 Volos NFC games / 26 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 32% | Draw 31% | OFI 37%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | OFI 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 32% | Draw 31% | OFI 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Volos NFC 0.97 / OFI 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.836 / def 1.245 | OFI attack 0.819 / def 1.177 | league avg home 0.985 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: OFI (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
OFI xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs OFI kick off?
Volos NFC vs OFI kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs OFI?
Volos NFC 5 - 0 OFI.
Where is Volos NFC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs OFI part of?
Volos NFC vs OFI is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 32% chance of winning, OFI a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Volos NFC and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and OFI in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. OFI (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against OFI's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.82x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
32%
3.12
31%
3.27
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.04
1.07
OFI xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 13.9 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.07 for OFI, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 9W 10D 13L from 32 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-D in the last five.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 10L across 32 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Volos NFC against 1.38 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 5W 3D 7L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 5W 6D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
OFI
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and OFI in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 9W 10D 13L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while OFI have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.20 PPG; OFI away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, OFI in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 4-0 on 23 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
4
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, OFI have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when OFI 3-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 47%, OFI 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Volos NFC) and 47% (OFI).
On the defensive side: OFI in 33%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 33% of games; OFI in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 47% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Volos NFC's recent games and 47% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and OFI tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, OFI in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat OFI 5-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.97 xG and OFI 1.07 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.84 / defence 1.25 against OFI attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 32% | Draw 31% | OFI 37%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 59%, OFI 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
OFI's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.16 PPG, OFI 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.