Volos NFC vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 51%, yet in-form Levadiakos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Volos NFC vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Volos NFC welcome Levadiakos to Panthessaliko Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 1W 5D 4L at Panthessaliko Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Levadiakos's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Volos NFC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Levadiakos, who boast 7 victories compared to 3 for Volos NFC.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Levadiakos winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Levadiakos have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Levadiakos trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 56% versus Levadiakos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 50% | Levadiakos 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.63 xG and Levadiakos 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.870 / defence 1.068 | Levadiakos attack 0.913 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Volos NFC games / 28 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 51% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 21%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Levadiakos 4.76. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levadiakos (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 70% | Levadiakos 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 51% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Volos NFC 1.63 / Levadiakos 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.870 / def 1.068 | Levadiakos attack 0.913 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Levadiakos xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
Where is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos part of?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 51% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Volos NFC and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Record (10 meetings): Volos NFC 3W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 7W.
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.51
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.60
0.97
Levadiakos xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
4%
24.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.97 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 9W 6D 19L from 34 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 12L across 34 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Levadiakos by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 5W 6D 6L from 17 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 4D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.85 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 9W 6D 19L in their last 34 games (0.97 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Levadiakos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.24 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Levadiakos have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Volos NFC
0
Draws
7
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 3, Levadiakos have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 65%, Levadiakos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Volos NFC) and 65% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 6% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Volos NFC's games and 47% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Volos NFC's matches and 65% of Levadiakos's.
Do Volos NFC and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.