Volos NFC 2-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Volos NFC and Lamia meet at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.32 xG and Lamia 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Lamia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.050. Data: 0 Volos NFC games / 0 Lamia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 39% | Draw 35% | Lamia 25%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Lamia 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 39% | Draw 35% | Lamia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Volos NFC 1.32 / Lamia 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Lamia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lamia xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Lamia kick off?
Volos NFC vs Lamia kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Volos NFC 2 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Volos NFC vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Lamia part of?
Volos NFC vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 39% chance of winning, Lamia a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Volos NFC and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Lamia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Lamia in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.85) and Lamia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.85x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
39%
2.54
35%
2.82
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.03
Lamia xG
2.54
39%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.03 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Pre-Season
Lamia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Volos NFC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Volos NFC won 3-0 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Volos NFC 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Lamia?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Lamia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Lamia 2-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.32 xG and Lamia 1.03 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Lamia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 39% | Draw 35% | Lamia 25%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.