Volos NFC 1-1 Iraklis 1908 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Iraklis 1908 at Panthessaliko Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Panthessaliko Stadium, Volos NFC have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Iraklis 1908 have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 4.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 4.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Volos NFC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.50 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 2.18 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.953 / defence 1.047 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.740 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 0.952. Iraklis 1908 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Volos NFC games / 1 Iraklis 1908 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 70% | Draw 19% | Iraklis 1908 11%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Iraklis 1908 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Volos NFC (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908 | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 70% | Draw 19% | Iraklis 1908 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 47% | xG Volos NFC 2.18 / Iraklis 1908 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.953 / def 1.047 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.740 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.679 / away 0.952 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Iraklis 1908 xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908 kick off?
Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908 kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908?
Volos NFC 1 - 1 Iraklis 1908.
Where is Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908 being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908 part of?
Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908 is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 70% chance of winning, Iraklis 1908 a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Volos NFC and Iraklis 1908 will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Iraklis 1908?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Iraklis 1908 in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Iraklis 1908's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Iraklis 1908's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
70%
1.42
19%
5.30
11%
9.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.92
0.74
Iraklis 1908 xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.30
19%
Draw
9.14
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
1%
81.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Iraklis 1908 expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.74 for Iraklis 1908, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Iraklis 1908 sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 0.00 PPG, Iraklis 1908 on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Iraklis 1908 are on 0.00 scored and 4.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Iraklis 1908 in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Iraklis 1908 in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Iraklis 1908 runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Volos NFC
1
Draws
0
Iraklis 1908
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Iraklis 1908?
From 1 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 0, Iraklis 1908 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Iraklis 1908 last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Volos NFC 1-1 Iraklis 1908.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Iraklis 1908 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Iraklis 1908?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 0% of Iraklis 1908's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Iraklis 1908 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Volos NFC's recent games and 100% of Iraklis 1908's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Iraklis 1908 tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Iraklis 1908 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Iraklis 1908 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and Iraklis 1908 finished level at 1-1 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 2.18 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.74 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Iraklis 1908 attack 0.74 / defence 1.36, drawn from 27/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 70% | Draw 19% | Iraklis 1908 11%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 0%, Iraklis 1908 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 0.00 PPG, Iraklis 1908 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Volos NFC scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Iraklis 1908 scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.