PAS Giannina 1-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAS Giannina face Volos NFC.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Zosimades plays host to PAS Giannina versus Volos NFC in Super League 1 (matchday 10). Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time.

Current Form

PAS Giannina's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

PAS Giannina's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Volos NFC have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.

Volos NFC's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from PAS Giannina's last 10 home games and Volos NFC's last 10 away games) — PAS Giannina have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Volos NFC in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for PAS Giannina, 2 for Volos NFC and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2023, ended PAS Giannina 0–1 Volos NFC — a Volos NFC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Volos NFC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 55% versus Volos NFC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 50% | Volos NFC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.54 xG and Volos NFC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.841 / defence 1.201 | Volos NFC attack 0.743 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.044. Volos NFC's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. PAS Giannina's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Volos NFC's projected output up. Data: built from PAS Giannina's last 35 games and Volos NFC's last 34.

Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 48% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 19%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.09 | Draw 3.05 | Volos NFC 5.19. PAS Giannina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: PAS Giannina 20% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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