PAS Giannina 0-2 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as PAS Giannina welcome Panserraikos to Stadio Zosimades. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina at Stadio Zosimades this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panserraikos stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (PAS Giannina) versus 0.90 (Panserraikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for PAS Giannina, 1 for Panserraikos and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 2–3 with Panserraikos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Panserraikos in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 50% versus Panserraikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 50% | Panserraikos 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.47 xG and Panserraikos 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.757 / defence 0.932 | Panserraikos attack 0.787 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.232. PAS Giannina's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing PAS Giannina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 PAS Giannina games / 18 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 49% | Draw 29% | Panserraikos 22%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Panserraikos 4.55. PAS Giannina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAS Giannina as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 40% | Panserraikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 49% | Draw 29% | Panserraikos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG PAS Giannina 1.47 / Panserraikos 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.757 / def 0.932 | Panserraikos attack 0.787 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Panserraikos xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos?
PAS Giannina 0 - 2 Panserraikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 49% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PAS Giannina and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panserraikos?
Record (1 meetings): PAS Giannina 0W | Draws 0 | Panserraikos 1W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Panserraikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Panserraikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (0.76) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.43
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.37
0.90
Panserraikos xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
5%
20.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.90 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 2W 6D 10L from 18 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 8L across 18 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 0.67 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 1W 1D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAS Giannina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.17 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 2W 6D 10L in their last 18 games (0.67 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Panserraikos away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.00 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and Panserraikos runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Panserraikos have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
0
PAS Giannina
0
Draws
3
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panserraikos?
From 3 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 0, Panserraikos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Panserraikos 2-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Panserraikos?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — PAS Giannina 38% BTTS, Panserraikos 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAS Giannina) and 38% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina have failed to score in 50% of games; Panserraikos in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 25% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 38% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Panserraikos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panserraikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat PAS Giannina 0-2 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.47 xG and Panserraikos 0.90 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PAS Giannina fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Panserraikos outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.76 / defence 0.93 against Panserraikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 49% | Draw 29% | Panserraikos 22%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Panserraikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 50%, Panserraikos 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panserraikos's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 0.67 PPG, Panserraikos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.