PAS Giannina 1-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 48%, yet in-form Lamia provide a compelling counter-argument — this PAS Giannina vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamia make the trip to Stadio Zosimades to face PAS Giannina in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAS Giannina have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAS Giannina's home record at Stadio Zosimades: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Zosimades. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lamia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Lamia are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — PAS Giannina have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Lamia in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAS Giannina lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with PAS Giannina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
PAS Giannina — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Lamia — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 31% versus Lamia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 31% | Lamia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.35 xG and Lamia 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.012 / defence 0.983 | Lamia attack 0.932 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 0.968. Data: 27 PAS Giannina games / 27 Lamia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 48% | Draw 28% | Lamia 25%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Lamia 4.00. PAS Giannina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAS Giannina are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamia (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 30% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 48% | Draw 28% | Lamia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG PAS Giannina 1.35 / Lamia 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.012 / def 0.983 | Lamia attack 0.932 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.367 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Lamia xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Lamia kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Lamia?
PAS Giannina 1 - 1 Lamia.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Lamia part of?
PAS Giannina vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 48% chance of winning, Lamia a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both PAS Giannina and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Lamia?
Record (2 meetings): PAS Giannina 2W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Lamia in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Lamia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 1.01x the league average against Lamia's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.93x) against PAS Giannina's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.60
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.24
0.89
Lamia xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.89 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAS Giannina come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 10D 15L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.83 PPG from 36 outings (7W 9D 20L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for PAS Giannina against 0.83 for Lamia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAS Giannina's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — PAS Giannina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 1.06 points per game from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAS Giannina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.75 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
Lamia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Lamia in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 11W 10D 15L in their last 36 games (1.19 PPG), while Lamia have gone 7W 9D 20L in their last 36 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Lamia away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.61 PPG; Lamia away: 1.06 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lamia in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lamia have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lamia won 1-4 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAS Giannina have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
2
Draws
3
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Lamia?
From 7 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, Lamia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-4 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 44%, Lamia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (PAS Giannina) and 39% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lamia in 33%; Lamia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 33% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 39% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Lamia tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lamia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAS Giannina and Lamia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina and Lamia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.35 xG and Lamia 0.89 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Lamia attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 48% | Draw 28% | Lamia 25%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 31%, Lamia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamia's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.19 PPG, Lamia 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.