PAS Giannina 3-0 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAS Giannina and Kifisia meet at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
PAS Giannina's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAS Giannina haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PAS Giannina's home record at Stadio Zosimades: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.52 xG and Kifisia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.921 / defence 0.995 | Kifisia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.140. Data: 26 PAS Giannina games / 0 Kifisia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 48% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 22%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Kifisia 4.55. PAS Giannina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 48% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG PAS Giannina 1.52 / Kifisia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.921 / def 0.995 | Kifisia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Kifisia xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Kifisia kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Kifisia kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Kifisia?
PAS Giannina 3 - 0 Kifisia.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Kifisia part of?
PAS Giannina vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 48% chance of winning, Kifisia a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PAS Giannina and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Kifisia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAS Giannina and Kifisia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. PAS Giannina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (0.92) and Kifisia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kifisia's attack (0.85x) against PAS Giannina's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 26/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
48%
2.08
30%
3.31
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.49
0.96
Kifisia xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
5%
21.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.96 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Pre-Season
Kifisia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAS Giannina won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
0
Draws
1
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Kifisia?
From 3 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, Kifisia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Kifisia 2-3 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Kifisia?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant PAS Giannina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kifisia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Kifisia 3-0 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.52 xG and Kifisia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAS Giannina beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kifisia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Kifisia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 48% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 22%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.