PAS Giannina 1-0 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Ionikos at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 4 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 games at Stadio Zosimades this term (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ionikos stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos away from home this season: 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAS Giannina 1.30 PPG, Ionikos 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, PAS Giannina have won 0, Ionikos 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Ionikos in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 40% versus Ionikos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 40% | Ionikos 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.42 xG and Ionikos 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.002 / defence 1.302 | Ionikos attack 0.711 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.244. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing PAS Giannina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 PAS Giannina games / 15 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 43% | Draw 26% | Ionikos 31%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Ionikos 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: PAS Giannina 62% | Ionikos 38%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 43% | Draw 26% | Ionikos 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG PAS Giannina 1.42 / Ionikos 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.002 / def 1.302 | Ionikos attack 0.711 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Ionikos xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Ionikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Ionikos kicked off at 15:15 on Tuesday 4 January 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Ionikos?
PAS Giannina 1 - 0 Ionikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Ionikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 43% chance of winning, Ionikos a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PAS Giannina and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Ionikos?
Record (1 meetings): PAS Giannina 0W | Draws 1 | Ionikos 0W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Ionikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Ionikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAS Giannina's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.80
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.57
1.15
Ionikos xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.15 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, PAS Giannina have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 6W 4D 5L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ionikos's form line: 3W 5D 7L from 15 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAS Giannina are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ionikos.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAS Giannina have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Ionikos have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAS Giannina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 0.87 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Ionikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Ionikos away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.38 PPG; Ionikos away: 0.62 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ionikos in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
3
Draws
0
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Ionikos?
From 5 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, Ionikos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Ionikos 0-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Ionikos?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 62%, Ionikos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (PAS Giannina) and 50% (Ionikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ionikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 38% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of PAS Giannina's matches and 50% of Ionikos's.
Do PAS Giannina and Ionikos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAS Giannina edge out Ionikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Ionikos 1-0 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.42 xG and Ionikos 1.15 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ionikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.00 / defence 1.30 against Ionikos attack 0.71 / defence 1.33, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 43% | Draw 26% | Ionikos 31%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 40%, Ionikos 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ionikos's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAS Giannina arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.