PAS Giannina 0-4 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as PAS Giannina take on Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Aris Thessalonikis travel to Stadio Zosimades to take on PAS Giannina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PAS Giannina, 1 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (PAS Giannina 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.27 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.117 / defence 1.368 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.783 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.081. Data: 38 PAS Giannina games / 38 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 35% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PAS Giannina 70% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 35% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG PAS Giannina 1.27 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.117 / def 1.368 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.783 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Aris Thessalonikis xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAS Giannina 0 - 4 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 35% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (4 meetings): PAS Giannina 2W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 1W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (1.12) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.85
35%
2.84
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.43
1.16
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.16 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 14W 13D 21L from 48 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 14L across 48 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 10W 7D 6L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — PAS Giannina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 10W 3D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.15 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 14W 13D 21L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 23W 11D 14L in their last 48 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.61 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.43 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
2
Draws
4
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 56%, Aris Thessalonikis 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAS Giannina) and 30% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 39%; Aris Thessalonikis in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 30% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 30% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Aris Thessalonikis run riot with a 0-4 hammering of PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat PAS Giannina 0-4 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.27 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.16 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. PAS Giannina fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 1.16 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.12 / defence 1.37 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 35% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 40%, Aris Thessalonikis 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.