PAS Giannina 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Aris Thessalonikis travel to Stadio Zosimades to take on PAS Giannina. The game is scheduled for Monday 14 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAS Giannina at 1.40 PPG versus Aris Thessalonikis's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PAS Giannina, 0 for Aris Thessalonikis and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 5–0 with PAS Giannina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (PAS Giannina 38% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.94 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.999 / defence 1.161 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.764 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 1.151. Data: 22 PAS Giannina games / 21 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 32% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 37%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PAS Giannina 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Monday 14 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 32% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG PAS Giannina 0.94 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.999 / def 1.161 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.764 / def 0.960 | league avg home 0.977 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Aris Thessalonikis xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 14 February 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAS Giannina 2 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 32% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (1 meetings): PAS Giannina 1W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 0W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (1.00) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.21
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
1.96
1.02
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 14.4 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.02 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 8W 6D 7L from 21 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 6L across 21 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 1.43 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 5W 3D 3L from 11 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 5W 2D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.00 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 10W 5D 6L in their last 21 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.64 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.55 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
2
Draws
4
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 54%, Aris Thessalonikis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (PAS Giannina) and 27% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 36%; Aris Thessalonikis in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 36% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 27% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAS Giannina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.94 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.02 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAS Giannina beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.76 / defence 0.96, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 32% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 37%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual PAS Giannina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 29%, Aris Thessalonikis 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.43 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAS Giannina win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.