PAOK 2-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Toumbas this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for PAOK, 2.20 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: PAOK 0W, Olympiakos Piraeus 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 48% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 58% | Olympiakos Piraeus 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.58 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.214 / defence 0.866 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.126 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 41% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 41% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG PAOK 1.58 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.214 / def 0.866 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.126 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: PAOK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 2 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 41% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (1 meetings): PAOK 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1W.
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAOK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.13x) against PAOK's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.48
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.91
1.33
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
6%
16.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for PAOK and 1.33 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 41W 15D 13L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 43W 15D 11L from 69 games, 2.09 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for PAOK against 2.09 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.18 PPG from 34 outings (23W 5D 6L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 18W 10D 6L from 34 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.10 scored and 0.78 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 41W 15D 13L in their last 69 games (2.00 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 43W 15D 11L in their last 69 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
PAOK's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.18 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.88 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
2
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 41%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (PAOK) and 44% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of PAOK's recent matches and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of PAOK's recent games and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Olympiakos Piraeus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.58 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.33 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 41% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 58%, Olympiakos Piraeus 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.00 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.