PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Championship Round - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AEK Athens FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 0.60 PPG lead over AEK Athens FC (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 47% versus AEK Athens FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 47% | AEK Athens FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.37 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.185 / defence 1.069 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.908 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Data: 26 PAOK games / 26 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 45% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 28%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | AEK Athens FC 3.57. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 50% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 45% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG PAOK 1.37 / AEK Athens FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.185 / def 1.069 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.908 / def 1.171 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: PAOK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.02
AEK Athens FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
PAOK 1 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC part of?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 45% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both PAOK and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.19x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (0.91x) against PAOK's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.66
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.39
1.02
AEK Athens FC xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
7%
14.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for PAOK and 1.02 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 18W 5D 7L from 30 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 10L across 30 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.97 PPG for PAOK against 1.60 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 9W 3D 2L from 14 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 7W 4D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 18W 5D 7L in their last 30 games (1.97 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or AEK Athens FC away?
PAOK's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.14 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.79 PPG.
Have PAOK or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
4
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 50%, AEK Athens FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (PAOK) and 50% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAOK's recent matches and 57% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of PAOK's recent games and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK and AEK Athens FC finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.37 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.19 / defence 1.07 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 45% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 28%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 47%, AEK Athens FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.97 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.